Wind advisory today, Friday 10/12

max_weisenfeld

Flash Flood Watch, tomorrow, Thursday 10/11/18

As forecast, the interaction of a plume of tropical moisture thrown our way by Michael with a cold front moving down from Canada is very likely to cause some thunderstorms tomorrow. Although the exact time and placement of the storms is still uncertain (and will remain so until they arrive) they should pass close if not right through the MAPSO area. Possible rainfall in these storms over the course of the day could exceed 2". With the ground saturated and the streams still fairly full, ponding and overspill should be anticipated in all the usual places.

From the NWS: Flash Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 329 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk.

* From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night

* A cold front will move across the region Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, interacting with tropical moisture, resulting in the threat of heavy rainfall.

* Showers, and possible thunderstorms, will develop Thursday afternoon and continue into Thursday night, resulting in moderate to locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts are expected to average between 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Any heavy rainfall that occurs within a 1-3 hour window may result in flash flooding. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall across portions of New York City, Long Island and southeastern Connecticut.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.


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Alex

Associated with what will be the remnants of Michael, which btw, is about as bad a hurricane as this country has ever seen.


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Terry

I'll take a day of flood, fire, famine and pestilence if that's what it takes to break this weather pattern and get to some true fall weather.

80 and humid in almost mid-October, bah!


Like  1 Like
max_weisenfeld
WxNut2.0 said:
Associated with what will be the remnants of Michael, which btw, is about as bad a hurricane as this country has ever seen.

 This image alone scares the #$%& out of me.



Like  
Alex
max_weisenfeld said:


WxNut2.0 said:
Associated with what will be the remnants of Michael, which btw, is about as bad a hurricane as this country has ever seen.
 This image alone scares the #$%& out of me.


 

https://twitter.com/skydrama/status/1050075646821638144?s=21


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mrincredible

Holy frak.

So they are looking at storm surge up to nine feet miles inland? Is that what I’m seeing?


Like  
Alex
mrincredible said:
Holy frak.
So they are looking at storm surge up to nine feet miles inland? Is that what I’m seeing?

 Probably only in areas with estuaries and streams. Whats even crazier is that this is the first major hurricane to impact GA since 1898...and this one passed through another state first...


Like  
Elizabeth

So we hear a lot about warm waters of the Gulf having something to do with Michael's force. Can we believe that?


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max_weisenfeld
peaceinourtime said:
So we hear a lot about warm waters of the Gulf having something to do with Michael's force. Can we believe that?

 Yes, by definition the warm waters a storm tropical storm passes over help intensify it.  There are a lot of other factors working for and against, but warm water is the main source of cyclonic energy.


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Alex
peaceinourtime said:
So we hear a lot about warm waters of the Gulf having something to do with Michael's force. Can we believe that?


max_weisenfeld said:


peaceinourtime said:
So we hear a lot about warm waters of the Gulf having something to do with Michael's force. Can we believe that?
 Yes, by definition the warm waters a storm tropical storm passes over help intensify it.  There are a lot of other factors working for and against, but warm water is the main source of cyclonic energy.

 In general yes, but this storm was kind of strange. The oceanic heat content (OHC), which is measure of the energy within the ocean integrated over an oceanic depth is probably a better measure than just normal sea surface temperature (SST). While SSTs were high in this case, OHC actually wasnt tremendously high. So I personally am at kind of a loss for how this thing did what it did. The gulf is also relatively shallow near the shore, which by definition decreases OHC significantly. This thing intensified up until landfall, which kind of defies reason. Goes to show you how much more we have to learn.


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Alex

Interestingly enough, Michael should still be a tropical storm by the time it gets near enough to us to cause the rain. After being on land for over a day, for the storm to remain tropical in nature speaks to just how powerful it got.


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DottyParker

The eye of Michael's storm looked to be the most well-defined and largest I've even seen.  The pilot of the "Hurricane Hunters" flying lab, said it was the roughest hurricane flight he's ever experienced.  A hitch-hiking meteorologist said that, from the plane, you could actually see the land below at the bottom of the eye.  After the flight, the pilot actually broke down thinking about his family/loved ones who were on the ground at the mercy of Michael.

https://wgno.com/2018/10/10/take-a-ride-inside-the-eye-of-hurricane-michael-with-the-hurricane-hunters/



  


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max_weisenfeld

This morning.


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max_weisenfeld

Note the extent of the power outages on the panhandle


Like  
addiemoose

in an unrelated (mostly) question, do you think all the overcast days in the last three months are weird/possible related to global warming? it's been soooooo cloudy since August...



Like  
Elizabeth
addiemoose said:
in an unrelated (mostly) question, do you think all the overcast days in the last three months are weird/possible related to global warming? it's been soooooo cloudy since August...


 I think it's total climate change, man-made, and irreversible. I have seen coastal erosion intensify over the past decade along the eastern seaboard. It is horrific, unprecedented, and if you have a beach house, kiss it good-bye.


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DottyParker

At link there is a photo gallery, from the Weather Channel, showing the destruction of Michael.  Among them are pics of train cars that were pushed off their tracks by Michael. When the storm started picking up steam yesterday, forecasters warned about Michael's ability to rip roofs right off of buildings.  It did just that and snapped old, stately trees like toothpicks.  


Michael Treks through Southeast after leaving Florida beach towns in ruin

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-10-11-hurricane-michael-damage-florida-georgia-alabama-carolina


 


Like  
Terry
addiemoose said:
in an unrelated (mostly) question, do you think all the overcast days in the last three months are weird/possible related to global warming? it's been soooooo cloudy since August...


 My sense is yes. I'm 48 and I don't remember humid and thunderstorms in October as a thing, ever, up until recent years. Now it seems to be not out of the ordinary, possibly the new normal.

Granted this is just anecdotal observation, and it could be one-off aberrational stuff. But my sense is it's part and package of a broader trend.  


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Steven

What is really disturbing are the hot, humid days in January and February.  We had a couple last year.


Like  1 Like
callista

Just saw pics of Mexico Beach, FL. Weatherman said that the hurricane was equivalent to F2 tornado, but where most tornadoes last 20-30 seconds and wreak devastation, this was a 30 MINUTE tornado of that magnitude. Most of the houses are gone, just the hotels and larger commercial buildings seem to remain. I really hope this is not the new normal. 


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DottyParker
Smedley said:


addiemoose said:
in an unrelated (mostly) question, do you think all the overcast days in the last three months are weird/possible related to global warming? it's been soooooo cloudy since August...
 My sense is yes. I'm 48 and I don't remember humid and thunderstorms in October as a thing, ever, up until recent years. Now it seems to be not out of the ordinary, possibly the new normal.
Granted this is just anecdotal observation, and it could be one-off aberrational stuff. But my sense is it's part and package of a broader trend.  

 Around the time of the flooding rains in August, meteorologists said that a reason so much damage was done was due to stalling rains.  The rain was so dense at times that it appeared as if it was snowing.  I had never seen anything like it.  Brick, NJ got hit with never-before-seen flooding; cars in a northeast NJ dealership became boats and floated out of their lots. There have already been articles about possible places to live in order to avoid disastrous climate change weather.  We are no match to a storm with the terrible power of Michael.  


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max_weisenfeld

Small thundershowers all around us now as the front pushes east and Michael moves into Virginia


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max_weisenfeld

There is a wind advisory in effect this morning.  Steady winds 20 - 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph could bring down branches and tree limbs.


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mfpark

Gladstone Branch of NJ Transit just shut down due to a tree taking out overhead wires.

Wind is whipping paper and debris all around New York City streets this morning.


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wendyn

Millburn Avenue is closed in front of Millburn High School due to downed branches and wires.


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wendyn

I am hearing Millburn Ave reopened both ways.


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