It's Baseball Hall of Fame Season Again
until these baseball illiterate nerds put in Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, they can plug their golden at bat right up their ghost runner.
BarneyGumble said:
until these baseball illiterate nerds put in Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, they can plug their golden at bat right up their ghost runner.
Small steps first. Let’s see if these illiterates can spell Chisholm.
Chisum should get an HOF vote. He fits right in with the sports writer nerds as far as baseball IQ.
Production at the plate that was 55 percent better than league average over a 14-season career, and a career fWAR of 61, including a ROY-winning 8.2 in 1964 and an MVP-winning 8.0 in 1972. A lifetime .292 hitter with an OPS of .912.
It seems like every baseball fan in Philadelphia who’s 70 or older has a story about seeing him knock the ball harder and farther than anyone else alive at the time.
A prominent target of racism during his early years in Philly, he returned in 1976 as a veteran role model for a rising Phillies team and eventually appeared to come to peace with the city and its fans. It’s a shame his election to the Hall didn’t come before he died four years ago at age 78.
Welcome to Cooperstown, Dick Allen.
DaveSchmidt said:
Production at the plate that was 55 percent better than league average over a 14-season career, and a career fWAR of 61, including a ROY-winning 8.2 in 1964 and an MVP-winning 8.0 in 1972. A lifetime .292 hitter with an OPS of .912.
It seems like every baseball fan in Philadelphia who’s 70 or older has a story about seeing him knock the ball harder and farther than anyone else alive at the time.
A prominent target of racism during his early years in Philly, he returned in 1976 as a veteran role model for a rising Phillies team and eventually appeared to come to peace with the city and its fans. It’s a shame his election to the Hall didn’t come before he died four years ago at age 78.
Welcome to Cooperstown, Dick Allen.
I'm glad he and Parker got in, though it should have been sooner. I never got to see him play, but he had some remarkable seasons.
So Dave Parker ok but Barry Bonds not ok. To say MLB are rank hyprocrites would be an insult to Tony Montana.
BarneyGumble said:
So Dave Parker ok but Barry Bonds not ok. To say MLB are rank hyprocrites would be an insult to Tony Montana.
Not to mention Willie Mays who was hopped up on greenies much of the time. It is not MLB per se that is hypocritical in this instance (although it is plenty foul in its own right)--the fault here lies with the dinosaurs in the Baseball Writers Association.
Beltran, Pettite, Utley (???), and Wagner have picked up more support than last year, although only 8% of votes are known as of now. Of these, Wagner should get in this year, Beltran will fall a bit short, and the other two will never get more than 50%, if even that. Andruw Jones is tracking about even with last year, meaning he will likely fall short again.
The 2025 enshrinees will be Ishiro, Sabathia, and Wagner. Not a bad outcome.
Beltran may be the only inductee in 2026 with a very weak new class (Hamels and Braun top the list). 2027 may not have any inductees, with the top of that class being Posey and Lester (although Posey may imitate Mauer--very similar catcher with a few really great years but not a lot, to go along with lots of bling). In 2028 Pujols is a mortal lock, and Molina will get in because he is one of the greatest defensive catchers of all time, and the writers love him, and he is paired with Pujols.
With 1/4 of the ballots known, and less than a month to go, Ichiro and CC are looking like they are locks to get in.
Wagner is running strong but in past years has faded as actual votes are known--older, presumably less social-media active voters will not be known until the final vote is released, and they have tended to be less sold on Wagner. I sort of get this as one can raise some questions on his qualifications, but given who they have been letting in recently (and who they have kept out), he deserves to get in.
Beltran is hanging on with just above 77% and unless those older voters still hold a grudge for the garbage can scandal he will get in.
Andruw Jones is interesting. His stock keeps rising to where he is just below the cut off for enshrinement. He is in his 8th year so in the normal course of events he will likely get in sometime in the next two years given the weak classes in 2026 and 2027. I still do not see him as HOF qualified, but I guess a lot do. Frankly, if I compare him to Abreu, other than in fielding prowess, they are pretty similar.
mfpark said:
Frankly, if I compare him to Abreu, other than in fielding prowess, they are pretty similar.
That fielding gap, however, is cavernous, and important.
The screenshot below was texted to me by my son. Harper’s WAR is dinged by all his DH-ing and the shortened 2020 season, which (along with Harper’s injuries and two early partial seasons that are added to Abreu’s 13 full seasons) accounts in part for Abreu’s extra 146 games played during this span.
Harper’s OPS+ advantage tells the tale at the plate.
Still, Abreu … Getting him for Kevin Stocker isn’t far behind Carlton-for-Wise in the annals of Phillies steals.
DaveSchmidt said:
That fielding gap, however, is cavernous, and important.
I actually do not believe either of them belong.
mfpark said:
I actually do not believe either of them belong.
What’s interesting to me is that when I compare Jones and Abreu, I see differences rather than similarities. Jones did “big” things very well (HR power and flashy CF play) while Abreu did “little” things very well (plate discipline, hit to the gaps, run the bases).
Not incidentally — yes, Jones also had the advantage of playing for perennial playoff teams — one of them became a national name with a chance to make the Hall (41% in his fifth year of eligibility) while the other didn’t (15% in his fifth year).
With almost 40% of the ballots known, Beltran's stock has risen to almost 80%. If this holds, it will be Beltran, Sabathia, Suzuki, and Wagner getting enshrined.
Jones has also seen a surge in votes and is just below the 75% threshold. If he doesn't get in this year, he likely does next year when there is an even weaker ballot. I am not saying that is right or fair, but it seems to be how the HOF voting works. You would think that if a voter felt he was not HOF worthy this year then he would be just as unworthy next year--obviously his stats have not changed.
mfpark said:
You would think that if a voter felt he was not HOF worthy this year then he would be just as unworthy next year--obviously his stats have not changed.
Many facts never change, but it’s always possible that my way of looking at them will, even within the span of a year. Something like that may be going on with voters every winter. Or it takes a player the full decade to sneak into a voter’s top 10 as the pool shifts.
DaveSchmidt said:
mfpark said:
You would think that if a voter felt he was not HOF worthy this year then he would be just as unworthy next year--obviously his stats have not changed.
Many facts never change, but it’s always possible that my way of looking at them will, even within the span of a year. Something like that may be going on with voters every winter. Or it takes a player the full decade to sneak into a voter’s top 10 as the pool shifts.
it's often the latter. Some years the ballot is packed, like this year.
The thing about Jones is he was easily on a HoF path until age 30. Then his performance fell off a cliff. I'm inclined to vote for players if they had a good seven or eight year run of being the best at their position. Five-time All-Star and ten Gold Gloves -- I'd probably vote for him. Similarly I'd vote for David Wright (but not this year, he doesn't crack the Top 10 nominees). I'd be especially inclined for guys who were HoF worthy prior to an injury. Which means I would have considered a vote for Mattingly, whose 7-year peak WAR slots him right in with Hall of Famers Fred McGriff and Tony Perez.
I also think fielding is so underrated by Hall voters. I get that a guy who stinks at the plate but is a great fielder doesn't belong. But how they can keep Matting and his nine GGs, and Keith Hernandez's eleven GGs out is ridiculous IMHO. Both guys were very good hitters in addition to their fielding prowess. Omar Vizquel's 11 GGs are another story because the domestic violence and sexual harrassment accusations are almost certainly countering that.
fwiw, the case for David Wright in the Hall:
6 Reasons David Wright Belongs In The Hall of Fame
Probably only 5 reasons. Being the face of a franchise shouldn't be a qualifier. But a few of those other reasons are pretty compelling.
Ballots are slowly being revealed, with the final votes announced January 21.
New candidates this year are Ichiro (a mortal lock), Carlos Gonzalez (who?), Curtis Granderson, Felix Hernandez, Adam Jones, Ian Kinsler, Brian McCann, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Fernando Rodney, CC Sabathia, and Troy Tulawitzki.
A lot will be dropped after this year. A few pretty good players will hang on for a few years and then drop off.
The only question for Ichiro is whether he is unanimous or loses a few votes for some unbelievable reasons. Likely he comes in around 95%, where Beltre landed (and he is a far better candidate than even Beltre was).
CC Sabathia is an interesting case. His lifetime ERA of 3.74 is going to give many voters a pause. But his innings pitched, Cy Young award and several top 5 finishes, and pennant run/post season heroics with both the Yankees and Brewers will get him in one day soon. Not to mention that the writers always liked him.
Among the returning candidates, this should be the year that Billy Wagner gets in. Carlos Beltran has a lot of support from fans, but I wonder if his Astros scandal will scare some voters away. For my money, both he and Wagner deserver to be in when compared to contemporaries.
Andruw Jones also continues to get a lot of support, but I am not so sure on him. A great fielder for sure, but a limited period of very good offense followed by a bunch of not so good offense.
Frankly, if Jones gets a look, then Abreu deserves an even better look. When you compare them offensively Abreu was a lot more productive in many areas. Yet he is going to drop off the ballot sooner than later, while Jones may get in.
I wish the BBWAA would get over itself and elect Manny and Arod this year, and retroactively induct Bonds, Clemens, Palmeiro, Sheffield, and all the other more than worthy candidates who were blackballed for actual or supposed steroid use. Either that, or weed through all the HOF members personal lives and toss out the drunks and abusers of greenies and wife beaters and any other of a number of unsavory things that they do not like.