The Rain Thread, now featuring a bit of Snow
Friday Dec 27th
A slight shift in the forecast this morning has brought us into the Winter Weather Advisory zone for freezing rain overnight.
Today, clear, cold now but warming up into the 30⁰s by this afternoon.
Overnight, light rain develops around midnight or after. Since it will be another cold night, there is a slight chance that the rain will freeze at the outset, becoming regular rain by sunrise. Showers continue Saturday morning.
The chance of freezing rain overnight Friday into Saturday is slight in SOMA, with the highest probability up in Newstead and West Orange. Higher chance west in Morris and Passaic. Rain Saturday morning will quickly clear any ice, but if you have to be out early, especially before dawn, be careful.
Rest of the forecast status quo, with rain Sunday and some showers Monday. Highs both days in the 50⁰s
Monday Dec 30th
The rain is ending early this morning leading to partial clearing and temps near 60⁰, breezy with gusts in the 25mph range
Tuesday mostly clear and continued warm. Rain overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, mostly before midnight, could be heavy at times
Wednesday to Friday should be dry and mostly clear with temps returning to seasonal
Thursday January 2
A belated happy New Year!
Wind Advisory continues today with gusts in the 40s mph, especially this afternoon
Then mostly sunny through the weekend with highs in the mid 30⁰s and overnight lows in the mid 20⁰s. Maybe some light snow Sunday night into Monday
Friday January 3rd
Forecast still more or less on track for a nice weekend, light snow likely Monday
Today, a chance of flurries with temps in the mid to upper 30⁰s, a mix of sun an clouds
Saturday, breezy is back but gusts only in the upper 20s mph, temps in the mid 30⁰s, sunny
Overnight lows both days in the mid 20⁰s
All the models still show the storm passing to our south Monday, primarily affecting Philly through DC. Here on the northern edge, we are generally seeing modeling in the 1" to 2" range and mostly on the low end of that range. That said, the snow has been creeping slowly north towards us, and there is a slight upward risk in total snowfall -- perhaps to 2 - 3 inches at most. High Monday around 30⁰ and overnight low down to 20⁰
Most modeling has light snow starting in the morning on Monday, perhaps during the rush hour or just after. While the snow would not start out heavy, any snow has an effect. Since the snow is not likely to ever be heavy, road crews should have little trouble keeping up but drive carefully anyway and watch where you walk
Although Tues and Wed will be clear, they will be cold so you'll have to shovel whatever falls.
Picture is this morning's GFS (USA National Weather Service) model run showing around 1" of snow for our area. The Euro model has a bit less, the German model a bit more but looks at this point to be an outlier. We are very close to the northern edge of the snowfield in every model, so little shifts are bound to happen. Unless there's a significant change I'll post again on Sunday.
Thurs Dec 26th
A couple of tranquil days to see out the week, cold at night with highs in the 30⁰s and lows tonight in the low 20⁰s, and Friday night in the upper 20⁰s
Unsteady weather returns over the weekend. Chance of light showers Saturday but the best chance of rain right now is overnight Sunday into Monday. Still, total rain for the period of ½ inch to a bit over an inch should not present any more serious issues.